U.S. ELECTIONS | 3 Scenarios for The Outcome of the Trump and Biden Race
Scenario 1: Biden narrowly resolved:
Trump has repeatedly refused to pledge a smooth transition of power in the event of an election loss, which is a concern in the country, adding to the tension created by the possibility of delayed results due to new coronavirus prevention measures.
But some reliable polls suggest a big victory for Biden, exceeding Trump’s margin of opposition, and delaying the counting of some of the votes.
TheEconomistprovides an estimate that supports this scenario, based on a special model, combining the rate of u.S.-wide voter polls with economic indicators and electoral college calculations.
According to the magazine’s findings by Sunday, seen by “Arab21,” Biden could shave 350 seats in the electoral college, compared to only 188 for Trump.
The Economist model estimated biden’s chances of winning by 95 percent, compared to just five percent for Trump.
Scenario 2: Trump’s victory:
The electoral landscape is dominated by expectations of Biden’s victory, but Trump’s “surprise” 2016 victory, contrary to most polls, could be repeated again.
A survey conducted by Spray Strategies showed Trump by one point by direct popular vote, ensuring that he won the electoral college.
Political science professor Helmut Norbot,known for his model who has not missed the outcome of the presidential election for decades, favored Trump by a wide margin (362 seats in the electoral college to 176).
If Trump’s victory was narrow, Biden had vowed to deliver the result without causing chaos in the country.
Scenario 3: Chaos
Democrats are urging their supporters and all trump opponents to vote heavily to spare the country a chaotic scenario of Biden’s narrow victory, allowing the controversial president to plunge the country into a spiral of objections and arguments before the supreme court.
Several reports point to deep concerns on the American street about insecurity if Trump refuses to call on his supporters to calm down and acknowledge the outcome, taking into account the great tension among different segments of American society, particularly among Africans, about rising racism.
According toPolitico,biden’s total number of seats, as well as those likely to favor him, is 279, a margin of 20, a narrow margin compared to Trump’s 2016.
Despite democrat Hillary Clinton’s nearly three million votes in 2016, Trump outnumbered 74 seats in the electoral college (306 to 232).
If Trump can actually win most swing states with a breakthrough among Democrats, the calculations could become more complicated and negatively impacted by pouring oil on the fire of tension in the street.